Sunday, August 11, 2013

About the McBudget...

Everyone has likely had a minimum wage job.  It's usually the first couple of jobs you get, and part-time.  If you're a teenager, it usually pays for a car payment, or the requisite insurance, or the extras in life (certain clothes, expensive shoes, game systems, etc.) that your parents have deemed you old enough to provide for yourself.  But it is usually a transition to better jobs with a little bit better pay, as you gain experience and skills.  McDonald's has always been the launching pad for teens 14 years old and up to have a job and learn some skills.  If those teens continue into college and earn degrees, they usually move out of McDonald's and into much higher paying jobs/careers.  If they stay at McDonald's, they can move up into management ranks and beyond.  McDonald's, if nothing else, has long had a reputation for promoting from within, and helping the beginners make careers out of the company.

Recently, there has been a push to increase the minimum wage again, preferably with a tie to the cost of living.  It has been estimated that, if the MW had been tied to inflation, it would be roughly $10.40/hr now.  If it had been tied to the cost of living, it would be $12 and change.  Opponents of a MW hike have claimed that it would cost people jobs.  Those in favor have claimed that unemployment is high because people can't afford to purchase things, and THAT is what drives unemployment.  They are both right.

McDonald's, as one of the major national employers of MW workers (as well as all other restaurant companies, WalMart, etc), is resisting this MW hike.  In partnership with VISA, they issued a response, in the form of a living budget:


Okay, most people have seen this.  It lays out estimated costs for various bills, and calculates what they believe to be the average person's cost of living.  But this is where McDonald's goes off the rails, obviously out of touch with reality.  Right from the start, they ASSUME a second job.  Right there is the big red flag:  If you want to be able to pay bills, DO NOT count on us.  The second job also implies that you will likely never get better than part-time hours at McDonald's.  Look, most people can do the MW thing if they get their hours, but they'd like it to be at one place, if at all possible.  That's clearly not possible here.  For anyone with children, holding down two jobs is tough, especially when the children are younger.  This estimate also appears to disregard payroll and Social Security taxes, which would lower the overall income estimate.  But of all the things wrong in this budget, taxes are but a blip.

Another area where they falter is in the area of health insurance.  First, the main reason they keep people as part-time status is to not have to provide benefits.  Many restaurants don't provide health insurance at all, except for full-time management.  Second, as laid out in a September 2010 article in Forbes, $20 a month for the people who do get insurance isn't even in the ball park of realistic.  In 2010, they were paying an average of $14 per WEEK.  Imagine that cost now, since the last several premium hikes over the past few years - it's more likely in the $125-150 range, if not more.  And, as the article points out, the health coverage they have been getting is atrocious in quality.  They are better off rejecting coverage and funding a health care savings plan, or  finding something on their own - which will undoubtedly cost much more than $20 per month.

This budget also underestimates the cost of heat.  Anyone living up north knows there's no such thing as a $50 heating bill, especially during the peak months of December to February, where the heat costs can be up to triple that amount or more, depending on the type of housing you live in.  See, the poor usually live in older apartment buildings and homes that have poor insulation.  So it's not unusual to have the heat running 24-7 in the dead of winter, jacking up heating bills.  It also underestimates electric, especially in the south, where air conditioning is often run 24-7, especially in the peak May-September heat months.  And in Florida, where I am from, gas is rare.  Almost all homes are run on electricity, save for the individual home owner who plants a gas tank in his yard and supplies it himself.  So there's no such thing as a $90 electric bill.

And this budget also simply disregards things like, well... groceries.  Or gasoline for the car.  Or clothing expenses.  And it obviously assumes no children, which is a big miss when you are talking about the average worker and their average 2.5 kids per family household.  But maybe McDonald's thinks that all falls into the $750 in spending money left over after putting $100 in savings.  Or maybe they think their poor workers will be on food stamps.  They would be wrong, by the way, in a two person household.  Their estimated monthly income would make them ineligible to receive benefits.  The chances increase with a child, as the minimum requirement goes up for every household member, but that is a huge assumption to make. 

McDonald's, in this attempt to teach poor people how to be fiscally efficient with their poorness, generally shot itself in the foot.  Then they shot it again when they decided to try forcing employees to take their paycheck in the form of a re-loadable VISA debit card, neglecting to tell them that VISA charges fees for virtually everything - getting cash at an ATM, basic withdrawals, balance inquiries, online bill paying, etc.  They also neglected to mention that McDonald's corporate gets a hefty payment from VISA to implement these cards, as most companies do for the business they provide to VISA.

Minimum wage opponents are correct that raising the MW would cost some jobs. Many employers are not willing to wait out the short term effect of higher payroll, for the long term effect that MW advocates are also correct about:  if people can generally make more money, they will spend more on average, revenues will climb, and employment will subsequently rise.  Generally, it's the conservatives who are opposing the MW hike, because they would rather keep their money in the short term, even if they have to cut payroll to do it - so feel free to raise the wage.  But keeping their costs low is the priority, even if they short-sightedly cost themselves revenues from the lack of purchasing power of the average consumer.  Advocates are largely from the liberals and civil rights groups who advocate for the poor.  There is a genuine concern for the welfare of the lower income families in this faction, but there's also a political and fiscal underbelly to it, in the form of union advocates, who are major pushers for the hike.  Why?  Because wages in union collective bargaining agreements are often tied to the MW.  Raise the MW by $3-5 per hour, and the well-paid union worker gets a raise too.  So the politiking surrounding a MW increase very often tosses aside the people most affected by it - the working poor, who need the ability to provide a living for themselves and their families.  For all the good qualities that McDonald's has, they've faltered in a pretty important area, and it highlights just how hard the working poor have it. And considering that adding the cost of a hike to consumer prices causes only a minimal increase in overall spending costs per consumer (1.2% on average), it should be given serious consideration.  We are falling behind in so many areas - this should not be one of them.  Let people have a living wage, the rest of the economy may just follow suit.

9 comments:

  1. Eric, you're missing a key piece of the equation here (though you very briefly mention it at the end of the entry). I get what you are saying. You are correct that hiking the MW will potentially cost jobs, and that the MW is not enough to support a family. However, the other thing here is that MW laws are effectively an artificial floor imposed by an outside entity (the gov't).

    So what happens to the cost of a cheeseburger (we'll keep using the McDonald's example) when the MW laws impose an increase? The other piece of the puzzle is that when you impose a cost to a business, that business either has to raise the cost of it's good or service to compensate, and/or cut jobs (which you touch on). It is usually a combination of both (especially in a large corporation like McDonald's). So the reality is that not only would people see a loss of jobs, but they'd also see an increase in prices as companies absorb the increased costs to business.

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  2. Got interrupted at work before I could finish the previous entry. My point is that while the increased costs and job losses can fairly easily be absorbed by big corporations like McDonald's, it's a death sentence to the small businesses who are far less likely to be able to raise prices to compete. They end up going out of business since they can no longer make a profit because of the new increased operating costs.

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  3. Matt: I am mixing some of my response with a response to Mark Goldstein on Facebook.

    Yes, prices can hurt small business. But if you think about it, what are the types of businesses pay minimum wage? Moreover, what is the rate of increase in prices? To be competitive, small business raise their prices proportionate to big business. There is a difference, though. If prices go up as a measure of the increase in payroll expenses being passed on to the consumers, the price increase is generally negligible. If prices are jacked up arbitrarily, simply because people are making more money overall, that's where there can be a negative impact.

    The main reason prices would jump is because we've never tied the MW to inflation or the cost of living. So the intensity of a price increase would be a knee-jerk reaction, which would level off over time. Prices couldn't go up too much, else people would just not buy certain things, regardless of the ability to buy. And the market would have no choice but to correct for that response by consumers.

    If I make a good living, and the increase in prices of everyday products doesn't hurt my bottom line (which should be the case for most people with a decent to good income - maybe I save just a little less as a result), I don't mind paying more for stuff if the lower income people see an overall benefit that outweighs the increase in prices. And they would, significantly. I am not willing to keep the lower income bracket in the crapper, just so I don't have to pay more for things. What they don't cost me in price increases, they cost me in Welfare and food stamps and Medicaid, etc. People have got to be able to look themselves in the mirror. If this country's economy provides a living wage, and people still are left behind, then at least I know it's not us contributing to the problem. But right now, the government adjusts the proverty limit to make it harder for people to receive benefits AND have a job. So people choose to stay unemployed, because they often make more money from benefits than they do from working at the MW level. That's simply irresponsible. They need a reason to work. Knowing they can make enough money to pay bills and provide for their families would do that. This would allow for a complete restructuring of benefits, which we badly need, and enrollment would drop markedly. To me it's not just a fiscal thing, it's a moral responsibility. I can live with the cost. Small businesess have always had to find their way amongst the bigger competitors. Most would still be able to do so. If not, they've likely miscalculated their fiscal needs as far as employees needed for "X" amount of work and "X" amount of sales. If they go out of business altogether, then they SERIOUSLY miscalculated. The increase wouldn't necessarily be a debilitating one.

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  4. -- Let me see if I can answer these one at a time (have to do it in multiple posts since there is a 4,096 char limit):

    [Eric] Yes, prices can hurt small business. But if you think about it, what are the types of businesses pay minimum wage? Moreover, what is the rate of increase in prices? To be competitive, small business raise their prices proportionate to big business. There is a difference, though. If prices go up as a measure of the increase in payroll expenses being passed on to the consumers, the price increase is generally negligible. If prices are jacked up arbitrarily, simply because people are making more money overall, that's where there can be a negative impact.

    -- [Matt] The problem is that it is not negligible. Minimum wage laws can effectively be looked at as a "tax" on business. The government is artificially imposing costs on a business by forcing them to pay a certain amount for labor. Make the cost of a good or service more expensive and businesses will pass on that cost to the consumer (in an ideal system it would be 1:1, but it usually works out to slightly less with the difference being a hit to profit margin) Also, define what you mean by "proportionate to big business." The cost to a small business is effectively far more because that dollar is worth more to a small business in the grand scheme of things. The volume of smaller business is less meaning there is effectively "more ground to make up." It's a mirror of why a flat tax would hurt the poor more than the rich. It's regressive in nature.

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  5. [Eric] The main reason prices would jump is because we've never tied the MW to inflation or the cost of living. So the intensity of a price increase would be a knee-jerk reaction, which would level off over time. Prices couldn't go up too much, else people would just not buy certain things, regardless of the ability to buy. And the market would have no choice but to correct for that response by consumers.

    -- [Matt] You're neglecting the 3rd choice here. Businesses have 3 choices when an artificial increase is imposed. 1) Raise prices to compensate; 2) Lower costs to compensate; 3) Close their doors if neither (1) nor (2) are economically feasible. This is why the MW laws are so damaging to smaller businesses. There is far less room for error given smaller sales volumes and fewer employees. MW laws kill competition, plain and simple. Where there may have been 10 businesses competing for a given good or service, potentially only 7 or 8 of them would survive with higher operating costs and/or it would prevent new businesses from entering the market because start-up costs would be higher.

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  6. [Eric] If I make a good living, and the increase in prices of everyday products doesn't hurt my bottom line (which should be the case for most people with a decent to good income - maybe I save just a little less as a result), I don't mind paying more for stuff if the lower income people see an overall benefit that outweighs the increase in prices.

    -- [Matt] Not to be an asshole here, but just because you don't mind paying more for a good or service doesn't mean that no one does. If you choose to pay more for something, that's your conscious choice. For example, I usually choose to go to local small business for things as best I can instead of the big box stores like Walmart. While I consciously make that choice, it doesn't give me (or anyone else) the right to force that choice on anyone else.

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  7. [Eric] And they would, significantly. I am not willing to keep the lower income bracket in the crapper, just so I don't have to pay more for things. What they don't cost me in price increases, they cost me in Welfare and food stamps and Medicaid, etc. People have got to be able to look themselves in the mirror. If this country's economy provides a living wage, and people still are left behind, then at least I know it's not us contributing to the problem. But right now, the government adjusts the poverty limit to make it harder for people to receive benefits AND have a job. So people choose to stay unemployed, because they often make more money from benefits than they do from working at the MW level. That's simply irresponsible. They need a reason to work. Knowing they can make enough money to pay bills and provide for their families would do that. This would allow for a complete restructuring of benefits, which we badly need, and enrollment would drop markedly. To me it's not just a fiscal thing, it's a moral responsibility.

    -- [Matt] You're looking at the wrong side of the equation here. You're absolutely correct in that the benefit of not working can be/is greater than the net from a MW job. But the solution is to remove a lot of the government barriers and add incentive to increase competition in order to lower costs and prices of goods/services rather than to force an artificial rise in income. You'll bring more businesses into the market and actually create jobs rather than simply force businesses to hand out money in the short term.

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  8. [Eric] I can live with the cost. Small businesses have always had to find their way amongst the bigger competitors. Most would still be able to do so. If not, they've likely miscalculated their fiscal needs as far as employees needed for "X" amount of work and "X" amount of sales. If they go out of business altogether, then they SERIOUSLY miscalculated. The increase wouldn't necessarily be a debilitating one.

    -- [Matt] Again, just because you can live with the cost doesn't mean that everyone can. Most small business owners have had to find their way, but far fewer of them do these days precisely for the reasoning I've outlined. It's exponentially more difficult and more costly to start-up a small business now than it was just 20 years ago. And for the most part, the biggest barrier is increased regulations.

    If you're looking at a governmental piece to the solution, one thing they actually can do is to start imposing tariffs on imported materials and products. Big business does most of its construction and material labor overseas due to far lower labor rates (Walmart does almost $10B a year of business in China alone). Small business does not have that luxury so there's another disadvantage there. That would level the playing field some. China does everything it can to keep its MFN (Most Favored Nation) status because the loss of that would be devastating to their economy even though it currently devastates ours. We've all but propped up the Mexican economy through NAFTA.

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  9. Everything you say has merit. Allow me to put it in these terms:

    Do I believe government is the answer? Absolutely not. Would I normally favor a government solution to this type of problem? Absolutely not. But here's the rub: Take away the MW altogether. What would the lower rung get paid? You say the problem of my having no problem paying more is the assumption that other people think like I do, and wouldn't have a problem with it, when the reality is lots of people have a problem with it. Okay, but eliminating the MW assumes every employer, out of the goodness of their heart, WOULDN'T slash wages in a heartbeat, when you know they would. The lower rung could end up in migrant worker status overnight. And why not? The government just said I don't have to pay you shit - and neither does anybody else. Feel free to leave, and good luck finding another job. There's a reason we have a minimum wage, and it stems from the very reason unions sprung up: owners were abusive and treated employees like slaves, with a minimal paycheck.

    You might say that employers would suffer in the market if their employees quit, and so would never play with wages like that. Maybe, but that's a huge assumption to take, at the expense of the lower income workers. Everything in this country happens at the expense of the lower income workers. Why? Is it necessary? I may want to have financial security, like anyone else. But am I willing to shit on the lower rung to do it? Absolutely not.

    I only look at a government solution, because the government has created the problem. They have created a system that ensures the lower rung stays right where they are. Maybe no one cares about that, but I do. And since they are almost 50% of the nation's population, it's in all of our best interests to ensure it doesn't stay that way. Our MW has been ridiculously low for years. And getting even a minor increase is like pulling teeth. And what has happened while we have kept the MW low? The cost of living has continued to rise steadily. So the lower rung gets lower and lower by the year, getting more and more difficult to make ends meet.

    And what do we do? We completely destroy the market, and then sit back and say, "the market will take care of itself." Number one, we have not been a market-driven capitalist economy in a century. Number two, the theory of the market taking care of itself only applies when the market is left alone. We don't do that. We manipulate the market to within an inch of it's life, then throw our arms in the air, as if we're shocked at the result. And the people who pay the price is the lower rung. They make less and less, as a measure of the consumer price index, and we all get angry when a guy like Obama extends unemployment to 99 weeks, lowers the poverty limit to allow more unemployed people to qualify for welfare, food stamps and Medicaid, all at our expense. Well we can't have it both ways. We are basically telling the poor to run a marathon, then whacking their legs off at the hip - then bitching that they haven't figured out how to run fast on their ass cheeks.

    So while I may not like that we need a government solution (I completely agree with your tariffs, BTW), and people are going to be pissed either way, I would rather piss off the people who have the ability to absorb higher costs. The fact that they get pissed at the notion is exactly how you know they would cut wages at the drop of a hat, if the government all of a sudden allowed them to, no matter who they screwed in the process - it's just about them getting theirs. Because after all, the poor have no options, right? They would have no choice but to work for less and get poorer. There are a lot of things in life I can swallow, but that's not one of them. So while you are generally correct on most counts here, I have heard no solution from the right - and I am one of the right... for now.

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