So it's been three days, a much needed decompression from the two year onslaught of presidential campaigning for all Americans. Candidates get a nice cocooning by their staff, even as busy as they are. The citizenry just gets pounded from every direction - it wouldn't be hard to argue that the people are more emotionally exhausted than the candidates.
But in the end, Barack Obama won another term as president. For Obama supporters, unrestrained jubilation. For Romney supporters, shock and confusion as to how this happened. For third party supporters (full disclosure: I voted for Jill Stein, but would have been satisfied with Gary Johnson as well), disappointment at the continued marginalization by the major party structure that leaves smart, strong candidates with their fingers and noses pressed against the window, licking their lips in hunger for real contention.
So what happened? Romney was going so strong that it seemed almost inevitable to end with a close call and a victory. And while the popular vote count was close-ish (a few points is a reasonably tight race), the electoral count was less than anticipated. A few things played into Romney's surprising slide on election day:
1. Turnout. Obama had it, Romney didn't - at least not what he thought he was going to get. Polling suggested otherwise, but I think something wasn't taken into account. The strong independent support reflected in the polls may have been suspect, because a lot of Republicans have shifted to independent, and that knowledge would skew the numbers from true independents who don't really lean toward any party, and are often where the undecideds are found. The GOP thought that in 2008, Obama got a huge showing by voters because they didn't know him yet, and could make him anything they wanted to - it's why Hope and Change was effective, despite having almost no platform except taxing the über-wealthy. In 2012, with four years of a record to judge, especially since the Democrat citizenry was disappointed with Obama failing to deliver on almost all his campaign promises, the GOP was sure the door was wide open to take back the White House because, surely, the voters wouldn't turn out in such vast numbers again. And they were right. But usual GOP voters didn't turn out either, and in greater numbers.
2. Hurricane Sandy. Like it or not, the incumbent has an advantage for a reason. Obama had been lagging, while Romney was building momentum. Something had to break for Obama, because they were not slowing Romney down, no matter how hard they tried. Then Sandy hit. Obama called everyone affected, looking for someone to allow him to be presidential. He had been turned down a couple of times, most notably by Michael Bloomberg in NYC, who did not want his relief efforts derailed by having to accommodate the resource and security needs of the president. So he told the president to stay away from New York. Then came the shock that shook the GOP. New Jersey governor, Republican Chris Christie, took him up on his offer to come survey the damage in his state. They spent most of the day together, after which they held a press conference, where Christie poured the love on Obama so thick, NRA members were loading rifles across the country, just wanting to shoot something. Did Obama do anything of substance on that little excursion? No. He needed a free campaign ad of him doing the one thing Romney couldn't - be presidential during the aftermath of a disaster - and he got it. Anyone thinking it was not political should find a mirror, look into it, point at themselves and laugh themselves to tears. It was a deft campaign move on Obama's part, and a sorely needed one. And to add insult to injury, this all came on the heels of Romney having already said that he thought we should get rid of FEMA. The timing could not have been worse. And with the juxtaposition of Sandy vs. Bush's handling of Katrina, Obama couldn't have looked better going into the election. Sucks to be Romney, but the incumbent has an advantage for a reason.
3. Women. I put this out there last week, and I don't know that it really influenced anyone's thinking - or that people around the country would put such thought into it - but the fact that the next president could feasibly have to replace a Supreme or two is an extremely important consideration that was not emphasized by either party. Simply put, the GOP has hammered women over the past four years, forcing women's reproductive and contraceptive rights to the forefront of hot-button debate topics - and THAT made the selection of the next president much more critical as far as I'm concerned. One Supreme vote swing to the right throws Roe v. Wade into dangerous territory. It also puts gay rights heavily in the mix. Romney swung way to the right to win the nomination and campaigned there for much of the run. Add to that Todd Akin and Richard Murdock opening their holes in as stupid a manner as I've ever seen, and there's just no way Romney was going to win the women's vote. Obama took it 55% to Romney's 44%. Among single women, the ones most affected by reproductive and contraceptive rights, it was even more so - Obama 67%, Romney 31%. You can not insult women and expect to win an election.
4. Minorities. As much as the GOP may not like it, blacks are here to stay, and the Hispanic population swells by the year. Whites were 87% of the population in 1992, they're 72% now in 2012. The party of old white men have to pop the bubble their heads float around in and realize you can't insult blacks by telling them they're worthless welfare leeches and Hispanics that you'll make life for them so difficult that they'll self-deport. Our demographic mix muddies the water more and more by the year. Obama got 93% of the black vote, and 71% of the Hispanic vote - a minority that is usually more conservative, making it all the more a slap in the face. The muddier it gets, the closer the GOP will inch toward extinction if they don't learn to include everyone in their endeavors.
5. "Flip-Flopping." Mitt Romney is a moderate, and always has been. If he had been himself during the Republican primaries, he would not have been the nominee. He went way to the right to cater to the Tea Party, who had proven to have some real power building up in the 2010 mid-term elections. The problem with campaigning today is that the media are everywhere. So Romney would give a speech to Tea Party faithful one day, hitting all the hard right points they love to hear. Then he would give a speech the next day to regular Republican supporters, where he would say something a little closer to what he really thinks. Then the media plays both and calls him a flip-flopper. It's a hard lesson for all prospective candidates. Just be yourself, and let people decide what's important to them about you. Romney came off as completely disingenuous and out of touch, people not knowing what to believe with him. Obama slammed him several times in the first two debates for being completely opposite from everything he campaigned on to that point. Normally that would be an amateur move, and Obama may have blown the first debate for the most part, but that one point may have stuck with voters, who started paying more attention from that point on.
These are just some of the main points that stick out. I think a big question a lot of people ask themselves is: do I believe the challenger is enough of an improvement over the incumbent, to make it worth replacing one with the other? I don't care for Obama, but I never believed for a second that Romney would be an improvement. I called him the Republican John Kerry several times - an empty suit lacking substance. So even if I hadn't supported a third-party candidate, I still wouldn't have voted for Romney, even being a registered Republican. And I imagine there has to be some Republicans that felt the same way. Learn some lessons, GOP, or your beeline to insignificance will be a quick one.
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