President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw the United States from the
Paris Agreement
, which went into effect in November 2016. As with most things Trump, there is no teeth in his withdrawal, in that - unlike the Kyoto Protocol - the
resolutions for emissions reduction by each country are not legally binding. All reduction goals are voluntary, and each country determines the levels it
believes it can achieve. Just like George W. Bush refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, Trumps reasons are dubiously economic, claiming that the Paris
Agreement will cost Americans jobs, increase energy costs, and provide little in the way of enforcement. Not coincidentally, both Trump and Bush are climate
change deniers and fiercely supportive of the oil industry. So when they make claims about the increase of energy costs, this is only because both presidents
flat out refused to support the push to eliminate fossil fuels and increase renewables. If either one put the support of the federal government behind the
effort, there would be plenty of jobs to boost the economy. Trump, on the other hand, still thinks he's going to magically re-animate coal jobs.
Don't get me wrong, I couldn't care less that we pulled out of the agreement, from a practical standpoint. The Paris Agreement is as inconsequential as Trump's withdrawal from it. Enforcement is indeed nonexistent, and why not? The countries didn't have to commit to any specific emissions reduction numbers, yet developed nations like the U.S. had to commit to financial contributions to developing nations for climate protection and technological advancement that were promised back in 2009 - but he disregards the fact that there is no enforcement mechanism to force the U.S. to do anything. So Trump's statements in his speech are highly misleading. The reality is this was a political decision in favor of oil interests, willfully ignorant of the actual regulatory stipulations within the agreement, which there are none. The irony in Trump withdrawing from the agreement is, in the symbolic nature of fulfilling a campaign promise, the symbolism has fractured still more of the global community's trust in the United States. All but two countries were part of the Paris Agreement. The United States joined Nicaragua and Syria as the only countries not participating. Our participation was only important because we are the second largest emitter of CO2 on the planet, behind only China. So when the rest of the world is trying to reduce the effects of industry on the amount of pollutants in the atmosphere, it helps to have the largest perpetrators as part of the effort. And as usual, Donald Trump gives a fat middle finger to everyone else, because he simply can not stop himself. And China becomes a big winner in all of this because, while the U.S. has been in the process of falling far short of its 2030 goals, China has drastically reduced coal consumption and boosted renewables. They will meet their target ahead of schedule. So Trump withdrawing from the agreement only puts China in the driver's seat as a global leader, the same country that Trump called an enemy, a currency manipulator, and a perpetrator of the climate "hoax" in the first place.
In an even greater irony, Trump claims that he withdrew the U.S. from the agreement so he can renegotiate the agreement. How exactly would that work? First of all, participating countries agreed that the agreement cannot be renegotiated. Wouldn't a president of the United States, who is publicly criticizing the agreement, know that? Second, Trump just spent the last couple of weeks offending most of the global community on his European trip, most overtly Germany, causing Chancellor Angela Merkel to say, "the times when we could completely rely on others are, to an extent, over." She spoke generally, but the underlying specificity was the United States. And after Bush pulling out of the Kyoto Protocol, and now Trump the Paris Agreement, what country will ever trust the U.S. enough to negotiate anything on climate, let alone trust us as a leader on anything in general?
Thus the political impact on our foreign policy could be far more damaging than any climate accords and that's where the symbolic failure really is. If we can't be trusted to maintain and abide by our agreements, who's going to help us when we really need it? With this administration, it has been made abundantly clear that we can not be counted on. Trump is making America great again, even if it is at the expense of our relations with the rest of the world. And we better be full on great, because in Trump's hands, it will be just us. Our allies, such as they are at this point, will have no incentive to work with us; on the contrary, they will have strong disincentives to tie any of their fortunes or stability to us. Our only saving grace right now is that the strongest economic influences in this country are staunchly against Trump's decision, and wrote a letter urging him to remain in the agreement:
Of course these companies have a vested interest in maintaining the United States' standing in the global community. They all do business around the world. They can't afford to have countries hesitate before agreeing to work with them on business dealings or initiatives that could have significant economic impact. Naturally, a few people trying to positively influence President Trump resigned from White House commissions after Trump's announcement, including Tesla/Space X owner Elon Musk, and The Walt Disney Company CEO, Bob Iger. But all of this is inconsequential, if symbolic, because the rest of the world is moving on from fossil fuels, regardless of the efforts by Trump and his administration to prop up the industry.
Coal jobs are gone. Oil companies like ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have sold off their Canadian oil sand interests in northern Alberta, and Cheveron and British Petroleum (BP) have been considering doing the same. So while the rest of the world moves on, we'll have Donald Trump, EPA Director Scott Pruitt, the Koch Brothers, et al, living out the last dying breaths of an rapidly decaying industry. Which is why Donald Trump's decision ultimately means nothing, economically and practically, a recurring theme in his short term as president. His incessant need to try to prove he's above everyone else ultimately will make them trust us less, and his decisions on an international scale will have less and less impact, once these other countries accept that America does.not.care.
So while the actual logistical impact of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement was meaningless, the larger foreign policy and international relations implications are why we should have stayed. One might have expected a president and foreign policy advisers to know this and have a better bead on the pulse of the global community. But this is Donald Trump's administration. You can't put the bar low enough for them to clear it without tripping all over themselves. It's what you get when an amateurish, low-information voter wins the White House. But that's okay. America will be made great again.
Don't get me wrong, I couldn't care less that we pulled out of the agreement, from a practical standpoint. The Paris Agreement is as inconsequential as Trump's withdrawal from it. Enforcement is indeed nonexistent, and why not? The countries didn't have to commit to any specific emissions reduction numbers, yet developed nations like the U.S. had to commit to financial contributions to developing nations for climate protection and technological advancement that were promised back in 2009 - but he disregards the fact that there is no enforcement mechanism to force the U.S. to do anything. So Trump's statements in his speech are highly misleading. The reality is this was a political decision in favor of oil interests, willfully ignorant of the actual regulatory stipulations within the agreement, which there are none. The irony in Trump withdrawing from the agreement is, in the symbolic nature of fulfilling a campaign promise, the symbolism has fractured still more of the global community's trust in the United States. All but two countries were part of the Paris Agreement. The United States joined Nicaragua and Syria as the only countries not participating. Our participation was only important because we are the second largest emitter of CO2 on the planet, behind only China. So when the rest of the world is trying to reduce the effects of industry on the amount of pollutants in the atmosphere, it helps to have the largest perpetrators as part of the effort. And as usual, Donald Trump gives a fat middle finger to everyone else, because he simply can not stop himself. And China becomes a big winner in all of this because, while the U.S. has been in the process of falling far short of its 2030 goals, China has drastically reduced coal consumption and boosted renewables. They will meet their target ahead of schedule. So Trump withdrawing from the agreement only puts China in the driver's seat as a global leader, the same country that Trump called an enemy, a currency manipulator, and a perpetrator of the climate "hoax" in the first place.
In an even greater irony, Trump claims that he withdrew the U.S. from the agreement so he can renegotiate the agreement. How exactly would that work? First of all, participating countries agreed that the agreement cannot be renegotiated. Wouldn't a president of the United States, who is publicly criticizing the agreement, know that? Second, Trump just spent the last couple of weeks offending most of the global community on his European trip, most overtly Germany, causing Chancellor Angela Merkel to say, "the times when we could completely rely on others are, to an extent, over." She spoke generally, but the underlying specificity was the United States. And after Bush pulling out of the Kyoto Protocol, and now Trump the Paris Agreement, what country will ever trust the U.S. enough to negotiate anything on climate, let alone trust us as a leader on anything in general?
Thus the political impact on our foreign policy could be far more damaging than any climate accords and that's where the symbolic failure really is. If we can't be trusted to maintain and abide by our agreements, who's going to help us when we really need it? With this administration, it has been made abundantly clear that we can not be counted on. Trump is making America great again, even if it is at the expense of our relations with the rest of the world. And we better be full on great, because in Trump's hands, it will be just us. Our allies, such as they are at this point, will have no incentive to work with us; on the contrary, they will have strong disincentives to tie any of their fortunes or stability to us. Our only saving grace right now is that the strongest economic influences in this country are staunchly against Trump's decision, and wrote a letter urging him to remain in the agreement:
CEOs Urge President Trump to Remain in Paris Accord by CNET News on Scribd
Of course these companies have a vested interest in maintaining the United States' standing in the global community. They all do business around the world. They can't afford to have countries hesitate before agreeing to work with them on business dealings or initiatives that could have significant economic impact. Naturally, a few people trying to positively influence President Trump resigned from White House commissions after Trump's announcement, including Tesla/Space X owner Elon Musk, and The Walt Disney Company CEO, Bob Iger. But all of this is inconsequential, if symbolic, because the rest of the world is moving on from fossil fuels, regardless of the efforts by Trump and his administration to prop up the industry.
Coal jobs are gone. Oil companies like ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have sold off their Canadian oil sand interests in northern Alberta, and Cheveron and British Petroleum (BP) have been considering doing the same. So while the rest of the world moves on, we'll have Donald Trump, EPA Director Scott Pruitt, the Koch Brothers, et al, living out the last dying breaths of an rapidly decaying industry. Which is why Donald Trump's decision ultimately means nothing, economically and practically, a recurring theme in his short term as president. His incessant need to try to prove he's above everyone else ultimately will make them trust us less, and his decisions on an international scale will have less and less impact, once these other countries accept that America does.not.care.
So while the actual logistical impact of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement was meaningless, the larger foreign policy and international relations implications are why we should have stayed. One might have expected a president and foreign policy advisers to know this and have a better bead on the pulse of the global community. But this is Donald Trump's administration. You can't put the bar low enough for them to clear it without tripping all over themselves. It's what you get when an amateurish, low-information voter wins the White House. But that's okay. America will be made great again.
